The US Policy Around the Unfolding Arab Spring

This is a summary of a talk given by Professor William Quandt, on the 8th December 2011 at the London School of Economics.  It gives some great insight into what went through the minds of US policy makers as well as the reasoning behind some of their choices.

Introduction

• If the Arab Spring had happened during the Bush reign, no doubt they would have welcomed it and even taken credit for it… at least until it started showing its Islamist dimensions.
• Obama from early on (2002) when he was a state senator in Illinois had gone out on a limb and opposed the Iraq war.
• Obama during his campaign for presidency talked about engaging with Iran and Syria and putting the Israeli and Palestinian Peace Process on top of the agenda.
• Democracy promotion was not put on the agenda by Obama as much as you would expect from someone trying to put America in a light which is diametrically opposed to its current excesses.
• The election of Netenyahu as president of Israel was bad news for Obama’s hope of reviving the Peace Process.
• When Iran went to the polls, Americans naively hoped things would change, and if it had, it would have been easier for Obama to engage with Iran but the elections were controversial and once Ahmedinejad was back in power the prospect of any early Iran relations was put on the backburner.

Tunisia and the Beginning of the Arab Spring

• All this was overshadowed by the revolution in Tunisia in Dec 2010
• Ben Ali is gone and shortly things move to Egypt with Mubarak being ousted and then ofcourse Muammar Gaddafi in Libya
• Other uprisings are harder to predict : Syria, Bahrain (put down by considerable force) and many smaller uprisings and calls for reform in places like Morocco, Jordan and Algeria
• American foreign policy makers are not very swift at understanding great radical change in the region… they are used to stability and weren’t prepared to take proper action on these events.
• Obama needed a more cohesive and skilled team around the president in order to deal with these new circumstances.
• Public discussion on almost all matters of public policy amounts more or less to partisan bickering and intense competition.  The coming elections are obviously related to this atmosphere.
• How has the Obama administration coped with the Arab Spring challenge? Not Very Well…
• The Wikileak cables showed that as early as 2009 and 2010, the US ambassador in Tunisia said that Tunisia should no longer be considered an ally to the US.  There was widespread corruption and a lot of opposition to Ben Ali’s dictatorship – the cables became public in December 2010 just before Bouazizi’s self-immolation.
• So American policy makers were surprised at the way events unfolded but no shocked by them.
• More interesting to me is that Rached Ghannouchi made the obligatory tour of thinktanks and media outlets in America as well as the pro-Israeli Washington institute for Middle-East Policy to prove his moderation. He also praised the Obama Administration for the good policy toward Tunisia and Political Islam.
• I agree with the judgment that America now sees that Tunisia is on its way to a very promising, democratic outcome.
• This wasn’t a difficult test for the US, the stakes were not high, there weren’t very large strategic interests there and no large vested interest in the Ben Ali regime. So America came out on the right side of that one.

Egypt

• Egypt is a tougher case for the US and Obama and his team was not that sure-footed.
• Mubarak had been a solid US ally, he co-operated on Gulf security, Kept the peace with Israel (very important for Americans) and provided a lot of support to the US on the War on Terror.
• The relationship between Pentagon and Egyptian Military was particularly strong.
• Bush 43 pushed for reform to democracy but the minute the Muslim Brotherhood showed strength in the 2005 elections, the US backed away from “democractic reform”
• Obama went to Cairo in 2009 and gave a major speech. Contained criticism of Mubarak regime, but Mubarak wasn’t there nor mentioned in the speech. But there was no indication of a drastic change in the relationship of the US with Egypt.
• But the US was still aware of some sort of change in the air. Mubarak was aging, rumours of his son succeeding him was rife and the rumoured “upre Mubarak”  (said in French – Uprising against Mubarak) – I’ve been going to Cairo every year for the last 20 years and these rumours were always there. What was surprising was how this change had come on January 25^th in Tahrir Square.
• But after Tunisia, this wasn’t surprising.  The two movements had a lot of similarities.
• Because the revolution was peaceful and focused on a clear national demand – “Yarhal Mubarak” meant that Americans could watch this and feel good about it. It was a good revolution.
• And for the first time you found Americans Glued to AlJazeera English, even those that didn’t have it demanded it and the cable providers obliged.
• Americans were then all talking about getting a “soft transition” – meaning we wanted power to fall into the hands of people we knew… like Omar Sulaiman. Who Mubarak just named as Vice president.
• And as well the army should not shoot at protestors so that they can play a role in the “soft transition” – as I said we had a great relationship with the Egyptian Military.
• During the 18 days of the revolution and the succeeding months, the US was largely reactive lagging behind the constantly changing reality on the ground with the key channel of communication being between the Pentagon and SCAF
• On the diplomatic side the Sec. of State and the White House believed that “Mubarakism” without Mubarak was the preferred option… Omar Sulaiman was also the preferred candidate by Israel.
• The thought by the US that the protestors on the ground might accept this option shows how out of touch they really were with Egyptian Public opinion.
• By early February, Sec. Clinton sent Frank Wisner to Egypt to deliver a message to Mubarak and to the Army. He was to tell Mubarak to step down and say his son will not succeed him and to tell the SCAF not to harm the protestors… Since he was there without any further instructions, an idea was discussed in the US that in order to bring about the reforms to guarantee democracy, Mubarak would need to stay his full term so that elections could be held according to the “law”.
• I thought this was a bit crazy… to be in the midst of a revolution and be terribly punctilious about a constitution that was about to be suspended. None the less, this idea caught on and Wisner got caught up in it.  Hilary Clinton then picked this up and said it publicly in Europe.
• This again showed how out of touch the US was with popular sentiment.
• The crowds in Tahrir asked to depose both Mubarak and Omar Sulaiman. Obama then came out in support of the people in Tahrir and the Us Admin then said this to SCAF.
• The New Egypt – the “Facebook-iyeen” – would it be different or resemble the old Egypt with the military still in charge and the Muslim Brotherhood playing an outside role.  But even so, with the Muslim Brotherhood, there are some issues would stand against the US especially regarding Israel and the Palestinians.
• Even though “democracy promotion” seems like a great ideal for the US, for those in power in the new Egypt, especially those not getting the benefit of the US funds ( SCAF and Muslim Brotherhood), Democracy Promotion simply means more foreign interference and was rebuffed.
• The new American Ambassador was declared persona non-grata for offering funds to Egyptian pro-democracy groups without the permission of those in power.

 

Libya

• Before the US could digest Egypt… they had to confront other revolutions in Libya, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain. They realized each would have to be dealt with very differently, there is no one size fits all.
• Gadaffi had diplomatic relations with the US. Condoleeza Rice had even visited him and he had an odd fascination with her.
• Obama had decided to depart with the way Bush43 had dealt with Iraq and “lead from behind” by making a “no fly zone” and leaving the rest to NATO – France and UK and providing Drones and Spies.
• Libyan rebels who would not have won on their own were able to overcome large armies.
• After the event , some thinkers in the US said we should have stayed out given that the new government might be Islamist.  Overall there was little concern over what might come next.

Syria

• More complex and strategic was the issue of Syria – the US was dealing with the Assads (Father and Son) for 4 decades.
• Obama admin found it impossible to maintain a policy of engagement with the regime in Syria, and no appetite for military intervention… the Libyan model didn’t seem relevant for the facts on the ground in Syria.
• Hilary Clinton has met with the Syrian opposition, giving rhetorical support but no formal recognition.
• Syria’s crisis comes as US troops makes final departure from Iraq… and few, if any, had asked for those troops to move to Syria for deployment.  It seems the US has few ideas and little influence when it comes to Syria.
• Yemen: Most Americans would have a hard time finding it on a map or understanding anything about its culture and history.
• So after the resistance against Ali Abdullah Saleh showed began and showed resilience in the spring of 2011  it got less attention in the US Media. Even after Tawakkul Karman won the Nobel Peace Prize for her role in the protests, it still remained a mystery for most Americans.
• Some pentagon planners wanted to have drone attacks against this latest remnant of the terrorist franchise.
• US did lend support to the Saudi and GCC effort to persuade Saleh to give up power, but for most in the US, Yemen was confusing and distant and best left alone to GCC and others without getting too involved.

 

Bahrain

• Bahrain: here the values and interest of the US came into a direct clash and Interests won out. Even neocon enthusiasts were worried that Iran were involved in the largely Shia uprisings and once Saudi Arabia decided to act; the US was not about to second guess its moves.
• Only late in 2011, once the Basyouni report came out with clear condemnation of the leadership did the US come out with calls for reform.

Current US approach to the Region

• Obama and team cautious and pragmatic.. .balancing values and interests and wanting very much to avoid another Iraq.
• Their caution makes them seem to be lagging behind, reactive rather than strategic.
• Few in the administration have any real insight into the region. – Just listen to any republican debate (there are surprisingly many nowadays) or watch Fox news, if you have the stomach for it.
• New shift to a less interventionist style of foreign policy, it costs less than dreams of imperion and Costs matters in the US economic climate. It provides spare capacity to deal with contingencies and accepts the reality that the US is not very good at asserting itself as a global Hegemon, or trying to nation build or trying to export democracy.
• But it would be a mistake to read US isolationism into this. We’re too involved and engaged with the world and too big to be passive observers.
• While US influence is limited, it’s not negligible.

His Proposals for US Foreign Policy

• What I would like to see, if Obama is re-elected, is a serious re-thinking of the foreign Policy along the following lines…
  • Bring in new Advisors who know something about the region
  • Get serious about supporting the new democracies in smart ways – Education, Economic Aid, Investment, Technology. We can make a difference with this and we’re pretty good at it.
  • Work closely with Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt, Morroco and others who seem to be interested in real reform and democracy.
  • Don’t give up on the Israeli-Palestinian Peace issue, even though its pretty dismal currently and certainly don’t give Israel a blank cheque on issues concerning Iran or on building of settlements in the Occupied territories
  • If there is a new leadership in Syria, we should look at an Israeli-Syrian peace agreement, all the ingredients are there and have been for some time, this would not be difficult
  • Cool off on the hysterical discussion about Iran, lean on Israeli’s not to pre-empt. Look for alternatives on the Iranian side. Patience is not much of a policy but the alternatives regarding Iran are all worse.
  • We should understand that the Arab Spring will continue over many years and many different configurations and we should try and help where possible but we can’t control the process.
  • The great thing about the Arab spring was that it was made in the Arab world and not imported from anywhere… firmly indigenous.
  • We should remain largely on the sidelines as they work through their issues.
  • One of the great things to see is the pride in the ordinary Arab people as they stand up for themselves.  They will let us know when and how and whether we can be helpful as they try to undo the legacy of decades of stagnation.

Twitter in Real Life.

This is most likely the reason first time users of Twitter stop, give up and bad-mouth it. I can’t blame them after watching this.

A message to the people who think Twitter sucks – You ARE FOLLOWING IDIOTS. If you followed the right people, Twitter is Awesome.

Technorati Tags: Twitter, College Humour
Peace.

Okay, so how is Twitter going to make money if it’s free?

Just read a great post by Adrants on Twitter still seeking a business model and still getting slammed two years on. The getting slammed part came particularly from Simon Dumenco who is a definite non-believer in the benefits of Twitter, especially if its a project which fails to make any money.

While Twitter has said and continues to say it has every intention of creating a business model which will support it beyond seed money, reading the revenue-generating notion “one idea is to charge companies th at want to use Twitter as an official channel to talk with their customers and monitor what they are saying,” causes one to ROFLOL to the point of gut-busting pain.

Charge companies? Charges companies? For what? Any company with half a brain already has access to an endless supply of free “listening” tools that offer fairly deep insight into Twitter usage and what’s being said about a particular brand.

Dumenco concludes not so inappropriately, writing, “I don’t think every tweet or blurp or bloop or fart that emanates from a human can or should have ads sold against it or be otherwise monetized.”

Of course Twitter is far more than any “blurp or bloop or fart that emanates from a human” , but still the man has a point. Twitter could charge a yearly fee to use the service, but then what should they charge? I certainly wouldn’t pay to follow a bunch of people talking about what they had for breakfast, or if they just came out for the shower, refreshed. Then again, if you’re paying for the service, maybe people who are really interested in adding value would buy into it and utilise it instead of it being just another social media plaything for the ever-growing population of digerati.

Another benefit of charging for it is that it would save us all from a barrage of useless advertising should Twitter opt for the advertising route.

I don’t know… maybe there is some creative way in which Twitter can make a good business model out of what they provide without totally pissing us all off. I hope they find it!

What do you think they should do?

While I’m here… :)

Winners of the South African Twitter Story Competition!

Mandy de Waal, one of our esteemed judges has recently coined the phrase “twiction” to represent micro-stories, especially those created within 140 characters on the micro-blogging platform, Twitter. I found it extremely appropriate to put this new term into use for this competition.

What a ride! The South African “Twiction” competition has now come to a head with the winners in sight and the prizes ready to be sent off. Thanks once again to all the contestants, the beautiful and intelligent Judges and, of course, the sponsors!

Okay… Let’s get to it.

First Prize: @JasonEsch

“He was both at a loss and lost, staring at the road sign that seemed more to describe how he was feeling than where he was going: Bakgatla.”

Judges comments:
“A journey at a crossroads, with a real sense of character. The ending wins it for me.”

“Beautiful use of metaphor for such a short form, and strong expression on the archetypal journey and ability of humans to get lost on that journey.”

@JasonEsch wins a T-shirt from SpringLeap.com! Congratulations!

Second Prize: @yusufk

“Vuvuzela in one hand,phone in the other,he watched the cross float by 3 defendenders,deflect off a forehead into the net. Tweet:”SA Scores!”

Judges Comments:
“Sports offers up great narrative. The themes of struggle, perseverance and victory are timeless. The ‘tweet’ added a nice touch.”
“Another strongly descriptive entry, which conjures images of our strong sporting nation.”
“I am so excited about World Cup coming to SA, and I think it will be great for the country spirit. And every goal will help. So this captures that hope beautifully!”

Yusuf’s entry was a close contender for no. 1

@yusufk wins a $20 Amazon.com voucher from the guys at Qatarliving.com! Well Done!

Third Prize: @samanthaperry

“A writer entered a story competition, lost, and killed herself. The judges denied guilt, claiming the writer had terminal Bulwer-Lyttonitis”

Judges comments:
“ For the benefit of those who don’t know the reference – click over to http://www.bulwer-lytton.com/ Clever entry; complete and concise.”
“Smart. Funny. Self evasive. Another complete story in 140 characters.”

Samantha’s entry was very close to snatching second place. She wins 40 Minutes Free wi-fi access which she can use anywhere in South Africa. Great Work Samantha!

Runners Up:

These were entries which were contending with the three winners and made some great efforts which put them onto the list…

@takilla786: Innocent window washes, innocent sells, innocent begs, innocent smells.Innocent pleas, innocent harps,all so that Innocent Jnr never starves
@blacktiemedia: Thembi stood contrasted against the sky of hungry fire. Smoke filled her lungs, blood stained her clothes. “Ubuntu” she whispered tearfully.
@nicharry: We’ve lost our ubuntu. 14 years gone and we are too scared to stand for our countrymen. Instead we fall for anyone carrying a knife or a gun.
@Sznq: He said: 1.Like it or 2.Hamba Kahle.When he wasn’t looking,she left.Now why can’t he buy her back ? Such bitter sweet things,ultimatums.
@qudsiya: One day she clicked on his nick and typed “hi”. A year later, she shook his hand and said, “Nice to meet you.” On 19/01/07 she said, “I do.”
@ismaild: its dark and she misses him, hears a sound in the kitchen! “WTF? Should she check? slowly tiptoes, damn those skelm tokoloshe with munchies
@shaunoakes: ! I said “Fok, Chyna” said a frustrated God, after another misunderstanding with an apologetic Mother Nature. “Now look what you’ve done!”

The competition overall showed the great variety of experience and expression in our great nation. Different stories, varied perspectives, emotion and intellectualism all in 140 characters. A tremendous example of creativity :) I was humbled at the outstanding creativity in each entry and I know for a fact that it made the judges’ jobs all the more harder to choose the overall winners.

Last Word from the Judges:
Saaleha Bamjee-Mayet – “Such stellar entries made the judging process really difficult. To facilitate the process, I tried to look for the most complete story in a twitter format, ones that gave a sense of a beginning, middle and end. SA twitterers have a wicked way with words, and I hated to let some really poetic entries go.”

Mandy de Waal – “For me the biggest skill in the short form is not only the concise concept and the writing, but the re-writing. The ability to shave off everything that’s not necessary, leaving only the bare bones of the story. Short form is essentially fiction that tells a story in anything from five thousand words to a couple of paragraphs. Imagine then how ruthless one must be with Twiction, which surely must be the shortest form of fiction ever written.”

Eve Dmochowska – “Overall, I think that the entries were fabulous, creative, inspired and mostly a whole lot of fun. And It was wonderful to see so many entries .. it shows that the twitter community is quite a cohesive one in this country. Well done to all the entrants!”

Winners, please contact me to collect your prizes :)

Till the next competition, Keep Tweeting!

: Twitter Story Competition, South Africa, Winners

South African Twitter Story Competition

Welcome to the South African Twitter Story Competition!

Here’s how it works…

1) You need to write a story that’s exactly 140 characters long.
2) Being that it is South African, you need to include at least one word from any of the 11 official languages excluding, ofcourse, English.
3) Post a link to your story tweet in the comments section of this blog post. (You have to post a comment with the link because if you just replied on twitter “@mkarim” it wouldn’t be 140 characters :P)

Example: “Who took my bloody biltong?” Oom Jan shouted at no one in particular, knowing for sure those bloody monkeys had invaded his home yet again. Twitter Link

The stories submitted will be judged by a panel of seasoned South African writers/bloggers

The Judges
Saaleha Bamjee-Mayet – Blogger, Writer and Journalist
Mandy de Waal – columnist, writer for hire and freelance journalist.
Eve Dmochowska – Writer, Blogger and Web Strategist.

The Prizes

1st Prize: Up for grabs is a SpringLeap T-shirt proudly sponsored by the guys at Springleap.com – Check out their site for awesomely designed T-shirts by some of South Africa’s Brightest Designers :)

2nd Prize: A $20 Amazon Voucher from Qatarliving.com the biggest social networking site in Qatar and owned by a South African Startup!

This should help with shipping costs now that Amazon has Banned the SA Post Office for theivery and fraud *sigh*

3rd Prize: The winner gets a 40 minute free wi-fi access voucher from Telkom Business which will allow access at any wi-fi hotspot in the country.

The competition was to end on 21st June 2008 at midnight, but has been extended to Thursday, 26th June 2008. All submissions after this time will not be considered.

COMPETITION OFFICIALLY CLOSED… WINNERS WILL BE ANNOUNCED SOON :)
: Competition, Twitter, Social Media, Web 2.0

Web Review: Kwippy.com

Kwippy.com is basically an alternative to Twitter and Plurk.

The functions are simple enough featuring the main aspects of Twitter… Microblogging, with permalinks to the various posts (called “kwips”) and the ability to reply. As per my previous post which put Twitter against Plurk, I have no idea if kwippy.com’s API is being shared or released. Also, it has the same downfalls as that of Twitter when compared to Plurk, where the design is not very Web 2.0 and it’s limited to passing links and is hindered by functionality to include pictures and videos. It does have IM updates via Google Talk though, which makes it a bit easier to post and deal with. Twitter used to have this before it started experiencing its problems…

So far, kwippy.com functions as Twitter, but without it’s API being widely available and having it’s functionality widely dispersed throughout the open source community and the web 2.0 community. Open Source is a major ingredient of web 2.0. Functionality in this regard and the ability to pass content easily between desktop and web applications is paramount.

This is what I see as a major stumbling block for this new Indian startup. They do have a feedback section though… so let’s hope we see some really good development from them in future… you never know, with the way things are going these days, they might surpass both Twitter and Plurk. Let’s wait and see.

Another major stumbling block at the moment – It’s invite only… I may have some available – just get hold of me if you want one – leave a comment or catch me on Twitter.

: Kwippy, kwippy.com, social media, Micro-blogging, Twitter, Plurk, Review

Twitter vs. Plurk

vs.
With Twitter going down every so often, (reminding me of Eskom’s load-shedding), lots of people, including me, have been searching for an alternative. Well, we found it with Plurk. So after a few days of using it here’s my comparison of the two micro-blogging platforms.

Twitter, has amazing functionality and given that it’s API is freely available it’s very malleable and we can use it to do a million and one things. The only thing wrong with it is its periodic shut-downs and general irritability with some of its functions (like device updates via IM) working only on random occasions.

Plurk on the other hand looks very cool and puts all your “updates” on a time line so you can track who said what when (if you check the everyone list, this timeline is split by the second.) They have some other function a like a widget and gaining points called “karma”, which I’m not really sure how that works yet. I do like the reply function which is really easy and targeted towards various posts on plurk. The ease with putting up videos and photo’s is also a plus. You’ll find the little icons which you can represent yourself with are also a bit weird, cthulu-like thingies, with tentacles and spots and bones sticking out. Weird. Plurk’s downfall is it doesn’t share it’s API… so you get what they give you and that’s it. Their widget is only editable vertically which irritates me as it doesn’t fit on my blog sidebar and overall I just can’t seem to like it.

Twitter, however, could learn from Plurk’s visual standards, quirky nature and easier video and photo micro-blogging. It would also help if Twitter didn’t drop the ball so often.

Overall opinion… Plurk is very limiting compared to Twitter. If twitter sorts itself out, that’s where you’ll find me.

UPDATE: >Plurk is releasing their API! – Let the Micro-Blogging Wars begin! This will sway my opinion of which micro-blogging platform to use :)

Technorati Tags: Twitter, Plurk, Social Media, Micro-blogging, comparison

Twitter’s Turquoise Screen of Incompetence

Twitter is becoming increasingly irritating for such a popular social media application. I can’t believe the guys at the back-end of Twitter can be so increasingly incompetent. It’s text for God’s sake… people are not trading videos on a continuous basis. There are thousands of websites out there doing far more traffic than Twitter and with far more media applications and they also have FAR LESS PROBLEMS.

Come on… what gives? And these cutesy little pictures trying to make it seem like everything is fine reminds me of Microsoft’s “Blue Screen of Death” … what shall we call these Twitter Error Messages ??? “Twitter’s Turquoise Screen of Incompetence”.

To the guys @ Twitter… Please get your act together!

Technorati Tags: Twitter, Problems, Twitter’s Turquoise Screen of Incompetence, error messages, irritating

Twitter Writing Contest on Copyblogger

TwitterSnooze: Pull the Plug on Verbose Twitters

Now this is a brilliant twist to the over-saturation of social media input into our lives. TwitterSnooze allows you to silence any member of your twitter community for a number of days. So when your friend has a bout of recurrent verbosity, and you don’t really feel like deleting them from your list, simply silence them with TwitterSnooze.

It’s amazing the amount of needs which spring up from our newly defined social habits in the Web 2.0 era, and the amount of web apps available to satisfy each need.

Maybe Web 3.0 will be a filtering of Social Media and provide all things relevant.

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