The US Policy Around the Unfolding Arab Spring

This is a summary of a talk given by Professor William Quandt, on the 8th December 2011 at the London School of Economics.  It gives some great insight into what went through the minds of US policy makers as well as the reasoning behind some of their choices.

Introduction

• If the Arab Spring had happened during the Bush reign, no doubt they would have welcomed it and even taken credit for it… at least until it started showing its Islamist dimensions.
• Obama from early on (2002) when he was a state senator in Illinois had gone out on a limb and opposed the Iraq war.
• Obama during his campaign for presidency talked about engaging with Iran and Syria and putting the Israeli and Palestinian Peace Process on top of the agenda.
• Democracy promotion was not put on the agenda by Obama as much as you would expect from someone trying to put America in a light which is diametrically opposed to its current excesses.
• The election of Netenyahu as president of Israel was bad news for Obama’s hope of reviving the Peace Process.
• When Iran went to the polls, Americans naively hoped things would change, and if it had, it would have been easier for Obama to engage with Iran but the elections were controversial and once Ahmedinejad was back in power the prospect of any early Iran relations was put on the backburner.

Tunisia and the Beginning of the Arab Spring

• All this was overshadowed by the revolution in Tunisia in Dec 2010
• Ben Ali is gone and shortly things move to Egypt with Mubarak being ousted and then ofcourse Muammar Gaddafi in Libya
• Other uprisings are harder to predict : Syria, Bahrain (put down by considerable force) and many smaller uprisings and calls for reform in places like Morocco, Jordan and Algeria
• American foreign policy makers are not very swift at understanding great radical change in the region… they are used to stability and weren’t prepared to take proper action on these events.
• Obama needed a more cohesive and skilled team around the president in order to deal with these new circumstances.
• Public discussion on almost all matters of public policy amounts more or less to partisan bickering and intense competition.  The coming elections are obviously related to this atmosphere.
• How has the Obama administration coped with the Arab Spring challenge? Not Very Well…
• The Wikileak cables showed that as early as 2009 and 2010, the US ambassador in Tunisia said that Tunisia should no longer be considered an ally to the US.  There was widespread corruption and a lot of opposition to Ben Ali’s dictatorship – the cables became public in December 2010 just before Bouazizi’s self-immolation.
• So American policy makers were surprised at the way events unfolded but no shocked by them.
• More interesting to me is that Rached Ghannouchi made the obligatory tour of thinktanks and media outlets in America as well as the pro-Israeli Washington institute for Middle-East Policy to prove his moderation. He also praised the Obama Administration for the good policy toward Tunisia and Political Islam.
• I agree with the judgment that America now sees that Tunisia is on its way to a very promising, democratic outcome.
• This wasn’t a difficult test for the US, the stakes were not high, there weren’t very large strategic interests there and no large vested interest in the Ben Ali regime. So America came out on the right side of that one.

Egypt

• Egypt is a tougher case for the US and Obama and his team was not that sure-footed.
• Mubarak had been a solid US ally, he co-operated on Gulf security, Kept the peace with Israel (very important for Americans) and provided a lot of support to the US on the War on Terror.
• The relationship between Pentagon and Egyptian Military was particularly strong.
• Bush 43 pushed for reform to democracy but the minute the Muslim Brotherhood showed strength in the 2005 elections, the US backed away from “democractic reform”
• Obama went to Cairo in 2009 and gave a major speech. Contained criticism of Mubarak regime, but Mubarak wasn’t there nor mentioned in the speech. But there was no indication of a drastic change in the relationship of the US with Egypt.
• But the US was still aware of some sort of change in the air. Mubarak was aging, rumours of his son succeeding him was rife and the rumoured “upre Mubarak”  (said in French – Uprising against Mubarak) – I’ve been going to Cairo every year for the last 20 years and these rumours were always there. What was surprising was how this change had come on January 25^th in Tahrir Square.
• But after Tunisia, this wasn’t surprising.  The two movements had a lot of similarities.
• Because the revolution was peaceful and focused on a clear national demand – “Yarhal Mubarak” meant that Americans could watch this and feel good about it. It was a good revolution.
• And for the first time you found Americans Glued to AlJazeera English, even those that didn’t have it demanded it and the cable providers obliged.
• Americans were then all talking about getting a “soft transition” – meaning we wanted power to fall into the hands of people we knew… like Omar Sulaiman. Who Mubarak just named as Vice president.
• And as well the army should not shoot at protestors so that they can play a role in the “soft transition” – as I said we had a great relationship with the Egyptian Military.
• During the 18 days of the revolution and the succeeding months, the US was largely reactive lagging behind the constantly changing reality on the ground with the key channel of communication being between the Pentagon and SCAF
• On the diplomatic side the Sec. of State and the White House believed that “Mubarakism” without Mubarak was the preferred option… Omar Sulaiman was also the preferred candidate by Israel.
• The thought by the US that the protestors on the ground might accept this option shows how out of touch they really were with Egyptian Public opinion.
• By early February, Sec. Clinton sent Frank Wisner to Egypt to deliver a message to Mubarak and to the Army. He was to tell Mubarak to step down and say his son will not succeed him and to tell the SCAF not to harm the protestors… Since he was there without any further instructions, an idea was discussed in the US that in order to bring about the reforms to guarantee democracy, Mubarak would need to stay his full term so that elections could be held according to the “law”.
• I thought this was a bit crazy… to be in the midst of a revolution and be terribly punctilious about a constitution that was about to be suspended. None the less, this idea caught on and Wisner got caught up in it.  Hilary Clinton then picked this up and said it publicly in Europe.
• This again showed how out of touch the US was with popular sentiment.
• The crowds in Tahrir asked to depose both Mubarak and Omar Sulaiman. Obama then came out in support of the people in Tahrir and the Us Admin then said this to SCAF.
• The New Egypt – the “Facebook-iyeen” – would it be different or resemble the old Egypt with the military still in charge and the Muslim Brotherhood playing an outside role.  But even so, with the Muslim Brotherhood, there are some issues would stand against the US especially regarding Israel and the Palestinians.
• Even though “democracy promotion” seems like a great ideal for the US, for those in power in the new Egypt, especially those not getting the benefit of the US funds ( SCAF and Muslim Brotherhood), Democracy Promotion simply means more foreign interference and was rebuffed.
• The new American Ambassador was declared persona non-grata for offering funds to Egyptian pro-democracy groups without the permission of those in power.

 

Libya

• Before the US could digest Egypt… they had to confront other revolutions in Libya, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain. They realized each would have to be dealt with very differently, there is no one size fits all.
• Gadaffi had diplomatic relations with the US. Condoleeza Rice had even visited him and he had an odd fascination with her.
• Obama had decided to depart with the way Bush43 had dealt with Iraq and “lead from behind” by making a “no fly zone” and leaving the rest to NATO – France and UK and providing Drones and Spies.
• Libyan rebels who would not have won on their own were able to overcome large armies.
• After the event , some thinkers in the US said we should have stayed out given that the new government might be Islamist.  Overall there was little concern over what might come next.

Syria

• More complex and strategic was the issue of Syria – the US was dealing with the Assads (Father and Son) for 4 decades.
• Obama admin found it impossible to maintain a policy of engagement with the regime in Syria, and no appetite for military intervention… the Libyan model didn’t seem relevant for the facts on the ground in Syria.
• Hilary Clinton has met with the Syrian opposition, giving rhetorical support but no formal recognition.
• Syria’s crisis comes as US troops makes final departure from Iraq… and few, if any, had asked for those troops to move to Syria for deployment.  It seems the US has few ideas and little influence when it comes to Syria.
• Yemen: Most Americans would have a hard time finding it on a map or understanding anything about its culture and history.
• So after the resistance against Ali Abdullah Saleh showed began and showed resilience in the spring of 2011  it got less attention in the US Media. Even after Tawakkul Karman won the Nobel Peace Prize for her role in the protests, it still remained a mystery for most Americans.
• Some pentagon planners wanted to have drone attacks against this latest remnant of the terrorist franchise.
• US did lend support to the Saudi and GCC effort to persuade Saleh to give up power, but for most in the US, Yemen was confusing and distant and best left alone to GCC and others without getting too involved.

 

Bahrain

• Bahrain: here the values and interest of the US came into a direct clash and Interests won out. Even neocon enthusiasts were worried that Iran were involved in the largely Shia uprisings and once Saudi Arabia decided to act; the US was not about to second guess its moves.
• Only late in 2011, once the Basyouni report came out with clear condemnation of the leadership did the US come out with calls for reform.

Current US approach to the Region

• Obama and team cautious and pragmatic.. .balancing values and interests and wanting very much to avoid another Iraq.
• Their caution makes them seem to be lagging behind, reactive rather than strategic.
• Few in the administration have any real insight into the region. – Just listen to any republican debate (there are surprisingly many nowadays) or watch Fox news, if you have the stomach for it.
• New shift to a less interventionist style of foreign policy, it costs less than dreams of imperion and Costs matters in the US economic climate. It provides spare capacity to deal with contingencies and accepts the reality that the US is not very good at asserting itself as a global Hegemon, or trying to nation build or trying to export democracy.
• But it would be a mistake to read US isolationism into this. We’re too involved and engaged with the world and too big to be passive observers.
• While US influence is limited, it’s not negligible.

His Proposals for US Foreign Policy

• What I would like to see, if Obama is re-elected, is a serious re-thinking of the foreign Policy along the following lines…
  • Bring in new Advisors who know something about the region
  • Get serious about supporting the new democracies in smart ways – Education, Economic Aid, Investment, Technology. We can make a difference with this and we’re pretty good at it.
  • Work closely with Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt, Morroco and others who seem to be interested in real reform and democracy.
  • Don’t give up on the Israeli-Palestinian Peace issue, even though its pretty dismal currently and certainly don’t give Israel a blank cheque on issues concerning Iran or on building of settlements in the Occupied territories
  • If there is a new leadership in Syria, we should look at an Israeli-Syrian peace agreement, all the ingredients are there and have been for some time, this would not be difficult
  • Cool off on the hysterical discussion about Iran, lean on Israeli’s not to pre-empt. Look for alternatives on the Iranian side. Patience is not much of a policy but the alternatives regarding Iran are all worse.
  • We should understand that the Arab Spring will continue over many years and many different configurations and we should try and help where possible but we can’t control the process.
  • The great thing about the Arab spring was that it was made in the Arab world and not imported from anywhere… firmly indigenous.
  • We should remain largely on the sidelines as they work through their issues.
  • One of the great things to see is the pride in the ordinary Arab people as they stand up for themselves.  They will let us know when and how and whether we can be helpful as they try to undo the legacy of decades of stagnation.

Social Media Marketing Win: Marmite Cereal Bars

Was offered this on Facebook recently in that little Advertising block on the right hand side of your screen offering a free marmite cereal bar. So I though ‘What the hell… let’s give it a go.’ Well I got it in the post yesterday and I was impressed by how integrated the whole campaign was in terms of Marmite launching the new innovation. The objectives must certainly have been awareness and trial, with a higher focus on trial of the product since the messaging of the campaign encourages feedback on their new product.

The product itself, well, it falls under the general feeling around Marmite doesn’t it? You either love it or hate it. Well, I do like Marmite in general and the cereal bar is pretty good. It’s not overbearingly marmite, but you get the taste and it fulfils all the passport factors of being a cereal bar.

I don’t know if they’ve done any TV advertising around it, but the Outdoor is fairly ubiquitous in London and very eye-catching and engaging. I especially love the twist and the emotion it creates around even thinking of having a Marmite showergel, Fabric Softener or Perfume. In contrast, the cereal bar looks like a great idea.

Check ‘em out…

Ad Agency: DDB

An overall brilliant marketing campaign which fitted Social Media into its mix and overall strategy pretty brilliantly and was the first FMCG brand to do so. The bars were also sampled at tube stations and other places and the sample bars through facebook were obviously voluntary and you had to put in your address. So instead of Social Media i.e. Facebook Ad units being the main driver it was, in fact, only a part of the campaign for marmite to increase its reach.

Great Idea. Great Work.

Hamlet: The Facebook Edition

The king poked the queen.
The queen poked the king back.
Hamlet and the queen are no longer friends.
Marcellus is pretty sure something’s rotten around here.
Hamlet became a fan of daggers.

- – - -

Polonius says Hamlet’s crazy … crazy in love!
Rosencrantz, Guildenstern, and Hamlet are now friends.
Hamlet wonders if he should continue to exist. Or not.
Hamlet thinks Ophelia might be happier in a convent.
Ophelia removed “moody princes” from her interests.
Hamlet posted an event: A Play That’s Totally Fictional and In No Way About My Family
The king commented on Hamlet’s play: “What is wrong with you?”

This recently came up on McSweeney’s: Hamlet (The Facebook News Feed Edition. Absolutely hilarious. This is what would probably happen if Facebook was around during Shakespeare’s time.

Muhammad is worried about people who have too much time on their hands…
: Shakespeare, Hamlet, Facebook, Funny

Facebook Moves to Protect Under-18′s

With the myriad of cases where under-18′s were caught and disciplined with evidence gained from Facebook. Facebook is now tweaking its site in order to better protect users who are under 18.

Among the Safety aspects put in place are:

• “Safety Messaging” which will warn under 18 users when they are about to disclose personal information to any unknown adult users.
• Restricting members from changing their listed age.
• Increased prominence of displayed safety tips
• Facebook will maintain a list of pornographic sites and regularly sever any links with them from the social networking site.
• Searching on Facebook will restrict adult users from searching for users under 18 years of age.
• Blocking alcohol, tobacco and other restricted product advertising from under-age users

Apart from this Facebook will also require all developers of applications for Facebook to adhere to it’s Safety and Privacy guidelines. Recently facebook has also agreed to join the Internet Safety Technical Task Force which is currently headed by MySpace and hosted at Harvard’s Berkman Center for Internet & Society.

Technorati Tags: Facebook, Safety, Berkman Center for Internet & Society, Internet Safety Task Force, MySpace

Aren’t you tired of Facebook?

I know I am… and for those of you who aren’t, check this out. It will show you just how irritating Facebook can be.

These days, the most interaction I have with Facebook is indirect with updates via Twitter and Notes imported from this blog :P
Technorati Tags: Facebook, Irritating, Annoying, youtube

South Africa’s First Web 2.0 Radio DJ

Well, I think I made some new ground in terms of pushing South African Radio to new limits, even if it was only with the last hours of the KZN Muslim Community Radio Station, Radio Al-Ansaar. I host a show called “WIRED”, every Saturday during the Radio Station’s tenure which lasts about a month at a time (they’re still trying for a full license to operate all year long).

Anyway, the last few hours I was talking about occurred on Friday night , approaching the midnight hour and although I had enough material to keep the show going I though I should spruce it up by getting input from anybody on-line via Twitter and Facebook. Since the radio station also has audio streaming, this made it a bit easier to get a worldwide audience involved.

So I did get a lot of requests and dedications via Twitter and Facebook from places like Doha and London, this was exclusive of the SMS’s and telephone calls we were receiving throughout the show. So there you have it… South Africa’s first live Talk show with requests put in via Twitter and Facebook. I think other Radio station like East Coast Radio and 5fm should start doing the same. It’s easier, faster and you can definitely get a world-wide base of radio listeners inputting into your radio show LIVE.

I’m just assuming I’m the first one to do this, since I haven’t heard any other Radio DJ’s take requests via any Web 2.0 applications… but if I’m not the first, please let me know!

Let’s hope this is just taste of things to come for South African Radio. We can revolutionise the way we communicate on a mass scale! This can even be rolled out to TV shows.

Technorati Tags: Radio, Al-Ansaar, Alansaar, Twitter, Facebook, Talk Show, First, South African, Muhammad Karim, Wired

Does what happens in the Facebook stay in the Facebook?

This is Scary.

After my previous experience… I think I should just let Facebook Go.

Word.

M.

UPDATE: Facebook has just let slip their secret advertising rate card which they claimed doesn’t exist… Opportunities included are Sponsored Stories, Sponsored Groups, etc.

For your enjoyment, here’s the complete seven-card PowerPoint deck as a photogallery

Tags: facebook privacy advertising corporate

Corporate Noose takes a tug at My Facebook Profile.

Call on Monday Morning…

R: “Hi Muhammad, It’s Renee’… tell me something, are you on facebook?”
M: “Yeah, I am.”
R: “What exactly is your profile picture”
M (confused as to how this is work-related):”Umm…”
R: “Is it a hand grenade?”
M: “Actually, it’s a mic shaped like a hand grenade and its artwork from a band I like. Why?”
R: “Well we have a complaint from a shareholder, he doesn’t think it’s appropriate.”
R: “We have to issue some type of response to him.”
M: “Well tell him I’ll change the profile picture, But Facebook is banned at Unilever anyway, so I’ll have to do it at home.”
R: “Okay, thanks.”

Why did I give in so easily? Facebook is banned at Unilever anyway right? What does a shareholder have against my profile picture on social networking site that has absolutely nothing to do with work, except maybe the “Unilever” network on Facebook.

Well, I just received a couple of lessons in the workplace. Politics, just like family politics, is an absolute bitch if you want to move anywhere, or get anything done. I also just got my second warning for excessive internet Usage (I think the limit is 3 before you get ‘bumped off’). So between a “shareholder” who could probably fuck over my career and changing a profile picture on facebook doesn’t seem like a choice at the moment.

Then again, I should have stood my ground on principle and told him to fuck off. But this isn’t the movies, I got to put food on the table and Rage Against the Machine artwork just wont’ pay for that. The Dillemma sounds too much like something from “Prison Break” though. Unfortunately, I can’t get writer to write me a nice ending, so I can’t take the chance.

So right now, my dillemma is what should I change my profile picture to that will be more subtle, but same sort of message..

hmph. I think it was Immortal Technique who said that when you try and change the system it ends up changing you. This stuff is hitting so close to home.